Redstate Sports

By Leon H Wolf Posted in NASCAR — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

In my Sharpie 500 preview, I predicted that Matt Kenseth would win on NASCAR's most unpredictable track, or that in the alternate, Kyle Busch would* - lo and behold, it has come to pass: Kenseth racked up his second win in two weeks, and Kyle Busch finished second. Once again, Kenseth won the race with relative ease, dominating the last 50 laps in particular, as no driver could mount a serious challenge down the stretch. Unbelievable as it may seem, Kenseth has actually caught Jimmie Johnson in the standings, a feat many (including myself) would have thought impossible for any driver just a few short weeks ago.

Kenseth now has four wins to go with his astounding 12 top-5 finishes on the year, and places himself alongside Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart as drivers who are "peaking at the right time." Unlike Harvick and Stewart, however, Kenseth has been doing this all year; he very easily could have seven wins instead of four if not for some late-race foibles (a questionable late-race caution at Las Vegas which allowed Jimmie Johnson to catch him and pass on the final straightaway, getting bumped by Kyle Busch at Bristol earlier this year, ditto Jeff Gordon at Chicagoland). His consistency, however, has been nothing short of amazing this year - Kenseth and Johnson have been the only two drivers not to go through a prolonged bout of the racing doldrums at some point; it seems incredible that Kenseth could actually have turned up the volume in the last two weeks, but he unquestionably has. I still like Harvick to win the cup, but Kenseth has become pick 1a over the last two weeks.

As for the rest of the field, Mark Martin had an inexplicable 28th place finish, and now finds himself in the final Chase spot. This situation would have been imaginable during the first half of the season, when Martin was firmly ensconsed in the top-5 of the standings; but Martin has been almost imperceptibly sliding of late; the finish at Bristol has got everyone noticing. Tony Stewart finished 22nd due to a series of Bristol-typical mishaps (pit row problems, etc.) and dropped to 8th. Dale Jr. finished a strong 3rd to move up to 9th, while Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton both recorded top-10 finishes. The end result is that while Kasey Kahne is now 90 points out of 10th, he is within 120 points of 6th place. With only two races left to go, Kahne needs an early DNF from someone currently in the chase to have a shot - the good news is that he's now within range of at least four potential DNF'ers instead of one or two. Nevertheless, I'd still favor the current top-10 remaining the top-10 for the next two races.

*It is true that I said Kurt Busch - however, as you will notice the reference to the earlier Bristol race this year, I clearly meant Kyle Busch.