Redstate Sports

By Leon H Wolf Posted in NASCAR — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

NASCAR heads west to California Sunday for the second-to-last race before the Chase for the Cup begins. Two drivers (Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson) have mathematically secured spots in the season-ending ten race "playoff," and there are 11 other drivers who have not been mathematically eliminated from contention for the remaining 8 slots. It's getting down to the nitty-gritty, and we'll see if some of the drivers on the outside don't take some chances this weekend in a last-ditch effort to make the chase.

As noted above, there are 11 drivers still in mathematical contention for the remaining 8 Chase for the Cup slots; those who are currently in those slots (Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Mark Martin) and three who are on the outside looking in (Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards). Biffle and Edwards are contenders in the mathematical sense only - unless they finish in the top-5 this week and one of the current Chase spot-holders does not finish the race, both will likely be eliminated even in the mathematical sense after Sunday. However, both Edwards and Biffle have experienced success at California, and it's plausible (but unlikely) that one or both could hang on for the final race.

Kasey Kahne, on the other hand, has a much better shot, being only 90-100 points behind 6 of the current spot-holders; this means that he essentially has to make up 20 places on one of those drivers over the course of the next two races - a very realistic goal. Kahne is a driver that none of the other drivers want to see in the Chase at this point, since 3 of the 10 Chase races are on quad-oval tracks. The previous 3 races on quad ovals this year have all ended with Kahne victories. However, Kahne's team has been erratic this season, and Kahne himself has made costly gaffes at critical junctures, which have put him in the unenviable position of trying to catch one of the very talented drivers in front of him. If Kahne wants to make a move, this race is the best one for him to do it in, and he'll be gunning for the top.

Meanwhile, the question remains whether anyone can stop the white-hot Matt Kenseth, who has won the last three NASCAR races, and whose style is well-suited to the fairly vanilla California track, where he already has one victory earlier this year. Kenseth means to enter the Chase on top, and won't be scared to take chances himself with a spot sewn up. Kyle Busch, who won this race last year, is another driver to keep an eye on. Picking any NASCAR driver to win three Nextel Cup races in a row is probably crazy, but I'm picking Kenseth to win this weekend anyway.

The race will be televised Sunday night on NBC.