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By Leon H Wolf Posted in NASCAR — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

We're down to the final race before the Chase for the Cup (NASCAR's equivalent of the playoffs) begins, and any number of insane (but fully plausible) scenarios could play themselves out over the weekend.

Before discussing the nine drivers competing for the remaining 8 Chase for the Cup spots, it's important first of all to consider those who are no longer competing for a Cup spot, as this may play a crucial role in how Richmond is raced.

First of all, Carl Edwards was officially elimnated from Chase contention last week as we predicted. This is important because Edwards has been good and well pissed (with adequate justification) at Tony Stewart for over a month now, and may view this as the perfect opportunity for revenge: when he has the opportunity to knock the defending champ out of the chase. Edwards has already demonstrated earlier this year that he is more than willing to exact vengeance on drivers who have wronged him - however, the dustup with Dale Earnhardt may have convinced him to mellow out a bit.

Also, Matt Kenseth is no longer competing for a spot, but for a different reason: he has his already sewn up. Mathematically, the lowest Kenseth can finish is second, and since the difference between first and second is only five points, Kenseth has relatively little to lose. Also, Kenseth knows that Richmond is perhaps the only track on the Nextel Cup circuit that he is consistently poor on, so he may be willing to take the opportunity to settle one (or both) scores against drivers who cost him wins earlier this year. Everyone will be keeping a close eye in particular on how Kenseth drives around Jeff Gordon and whether he will attempt to settle that score, but many have forgotten that Kenseth's bigger beef is probably with Tony Stewart, who did a good deal more than bump him out of the way at Daytona to start the year; Stewart deliberately ran Kenseth off the road in the middle of a straightaway in a maneuver that very well could have killed him. While many NASCAR fans and commentators may have forgotten this altercation, I'm betting that Kenseth hasn't. Kenseth is too cool to attempt something as blatant in return, but Kenseth will certainly be the second guy that Tony Stewart needs to keep an eye on.

The bottom line is that Tony Stewart is certainly one of the best racecar drivers in the world; however, he's also such a monumental jerk both off the track and on that he may have finally pissed off enough people to cost him his spot in the Chase this year.

In the meantime, all eyes will be on Kasey Kahne, to see if his amazing performance at California will finally result in a Chase spot. Two amazing things might potentially happen this weekend. First, if Kahne wins the race, and Mark Martin and Jeff Burton both finish in the top 5, Kahne may well miss the Chase despite winning an amazing six pre-Chase races. However, an entirely different scenario may play itself out in which the Chase for the Cup includes 11 drivers instead of ten.

According to NASCAR rules, the top ten drivers in standings points after Richmond automatically make the Chase; however, any driver within 400 standings points of the leader also qualifies for the Chase, but no 11th-place driver has ever been even close to reaching this mark. Because the 3rd-11th spots are so bunched up this year, 2006 could be the first 11-racer Chase for the Cup. In order for this to happen, both Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth would need to finish in the 30s, which is an almost unthinkable proposition at any racetrack besides Richmond, where the steady-as-a-rock Kenseth has historically struggled. This result would have to be combined with all the other Chase drivers finishing in the top 15, with Kahne, Burton and Martin finishing near the top. The result is very unlikely, but it could happen; and given the way that the 11 drivers in question have performed this year, it's hard to make the argument that any of them deserve to miss the cup more than another.

The race begins Saturday night at 7pm ET on TNT.