Redstate Sports

By Leon H Wolf Posted in NASCAR — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The Chase for the Cup field is finally set, and the standings at this point are as follows:

1. Matt Kenseth (Leader)

2. Jimmie Johnson -5
3. Kevin Harvick -10
4. Kyle Busch -15
5. Denny Hamlin -20
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -25
7. Mark Martin -30
8. Jeff Burton -35
9. Jeff Gordon -40
10. Kasey Kahne -45

Below the fold, I engage in the dicey proposition of picking which drivers are most likely to win the Chase...

1. Kevin Harvick (Robert Childress Racing, Chevy). For me, the defining moment of the season was Harvick's out-of-nowhere win at Watkins Glen, a track where everyone was expecting either Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon or another road-course racer to prevail. Harvick had finished with four top-fives in a row, but the win at Watkins Glen showed that the ceiling really has come off for the guy who, a few years ago, everyone was predicting would win multiple Nextel Cup championships. Harvick is talented, RCR has finally recovered from the loss of Dale Earnhardt Sr., and everything is clicking. It's difficult at this point to distinguish between Harvick and Kenseth (who is also clicking on all cylinders), but Saturday's race, in which Harvick made a gutsy last-lap pass of Kyle Busch despite having his Chase spot sewn up, to me confirmed that Harvick has the killer instinct and competitive edge that will allow him to edge out the more conservative Kenseth in the end.

1a. Matt Kenseth (Jack Rousch Racing, Ford). Being a Kenseth fan, I had a very hard time putting Harvick ahead, given Kenseth's stellar and consistent success this year, and all his momentum heading into the Chase. Kenseth, after all, has probably the best and most reliable team, and most bulletproof pit crew in NASCAR, and is by farthe most likely driver to finish in the top-5 in any given race. Nevertheless, the Chase mainly features medium and full-length ovals (Kansas, Talladega, Lowe's, Texas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Miami), and fewer short courses (New Hampshire, Martinsville, and Dover), and I think that this favors Harvick somewhat. Nevertheless, if you can get someone to give you the field against Kenseth and Harvick, take the bet. These two drivers are head and shoulders above the field at this point.

3. Kyle Busch (Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy). I long ago stopped thinking that this youngster would self-destruct due to anger issues. Sure, he's got temper problems and immaturity problems, but unlike Tony Stewart, Busch spent the last half of the season keeping his mouth shut and finishing in the top-10 race after race. My remark about Busch earlier this year was, "He may not win the Cup this year, but he sure will in the future"; I've had to revise that to "This kid may well win it all this year." Provided that he can keep clear of Tony Stewart and keep all projectiles inside his car, Busch is the most likely driver to contend with Kenseth and Harvick.

4. Kasey Kahne (Evernham Motorsports, Dodge). Kahne enters the Chase in tenth place, but the lineup of Chase courses heavily favors Kahne's driving style. As mentioned before, the track is heavy on 2-mile and above ovals, where Kahne has five wins this year. Further, the Chase features the three quad-oval tracks (Lowe's, Atlanta, Texas), which Kahne swept earlier this year in impressive fashion. Questions remain about the focus of Kahne's team, but Kahne could well win three of the Chase races, regardless of what may happen on the shorter tracks. As close as the field has been the last couple of weeks, being 45 points back may actually be a major hindrance for Kahne if he wants to catch Kenseth and Harvick.

5. Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy). I really hesitate to place the Peyton Manning of NASCAR even this high, but his commanding "regular season" performance demands that he be taken at least semi-seriously. Regardless, we've seen this all before; complete with the meltdown when the tracks start cooling off and the pressure is on - in the last two races, Johnson has finished 22nd and 11th to surrender his previously invincible lead over Matt Kenseth. Fishing trips to Alaska aside, Johnson clearly knows what the expectations for him are, and they're getting to him. Expect from Johnson exactly what you expect from Peyton when it comes to playoff time, minus the "Manning face."

6. Jeff Gordon (Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy). Gordon has shown flashes of his old self this year (and he's still a jerk, no matter how he's performing on the course), but he's also dashed in enough bizarre inconsistency that he's not feared at all going into this Chase. Between less-than-stellar finishes, and numerous team problems (problems with the car, and problems in the pits), one never knows where Gordon is going to finish, and indeed some of those problems nearly landed him outside the Chase when his team neglected to properly tighten his lugnuts at California, and his car nearly blew up at Richmond. Perhaps Gordon is just playing possum, but from where I stand, he just doesn't have "it" anymore - at least not this year.

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (DEI, Chevy). Dale Jr. has established himself as the driver he could be this year; and if the Chase were decided on driving talent, Dale would be a lot closer to the top of this list. However, Dale joins Gordon and Kahne as drivers with "team problems," except his are worse. His pit crew is solid, but the cars he gets week after week seem to have more mechanical and power problems than all the rest of the chase drivers, combined. Dale has talent, and a knack for the theatrical, but DEI is going to have to invest more in a better team if Dale is to actually win the Cup.

8. Jeff Burton (Robert Childress Racing, Chevy). Burton is the sort of racer who could potentially finish every Chase race in the top-10, but not win any of them. Earlier in the year, when Burton was running third, this would perhaps have been adequate to eek out a Cup victory; but he's faltered down the stretch and his cars just don't seem to have the power or consistency that they had during the middle of the season. With Burton starting toward the back of the field, and with his inability to find Victory Lane, Burton's chances of winning the Cup are slim, at best.

9. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing, Chevy). It's absolutely unthinkable that a rookie would win the Chase for the Cup - too little experience, too few times around the tracks, including the fact that he'll be racing at Phoenix and Homestead for the very first time. Denny Hamlin cannot win the Chase. Nevertheless, Hamlin has knocked down an impressive collection of things he couldn't do thus far this year - perhaps he'll add winning the Cup to that collection.

10. Mark Martin (Jack Rousch Racing, Ford). I love the old guy, I'll be sad when he retires, and I wish some of the punks currently driving for NASCAR (I'm looking at you, Tony Stewart, among others) would learn from his example. But let's not kid ourselves; Martin had to fight and claw to hold on to a top-10 spot down the stretch, his cars have looked tired since Indy, and his team knows he won't be there next year. If Martin wins the chase, I'll eat my Matt Kenseth hat. That is not to say that the sport, or I, won't miss him next year - but he will always be the best driver to never win the Championship. Don't worry, Mark - Dan Marino and Charles Barkley offer weekend counseling these days, I hear.